不要怕！港股牛市还要继续！

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market (HK) has lagged behind the A-share market (A), raising questions about the potential for a rebound in HK stocks despite initial optimism following a period of adjustment [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - From April 7 to July 24, HK stocks were the leaders, but since August 4, A-shares have outperformed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 8.37% compared to HK's 2.33% over 20 trading days [2]. - The ChiNext 50 index surged 29.37%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index, which only increased by 5.13% [2]. Group 2: External Influences - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish signals regarding interest rate cuts have initially boosted HK stocks, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.94% and 3.14% respectively on the following Monday [6]. - However, the anticipated rate cuts may not sustain HK's upward momentum, as Powell's comments do not guarantee a series of continuous cuts [7][8]. Group 3: Internal Market Dynamics - The internal logic driving the market includes economic improvement, funding availability, and valuation levels [10]. - China's macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with industrial profits declining at a slower rate of 1.7% year-on-year for the first seven months, and manufacturing profits growing by 6.8% in July [10]. Group 4: Capital Inflows - Significant capital inflows into HK stocks have been observed, with a total of HKD 900 billion flowing in from southbound trading since the beginning of the year [11]. - Foreign capital has also shown a shift, with approximately USD 5.22 billion entering HK stocks this year, despite some outflows from active foreign funds [12]. Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - Despite concerns about valuation, HK stocks remain relatively undervalued compared to global indices, with the forward P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index at 16.1, lower than the NASDAQ's 28.8 [14]. - The MSCI global index has a forward P/E of 18.9, while the S&P 500 stands at 22.3, indicating that HK stocks still hold value [13]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The potential for a rebound in HK stocks is supported by the expectation of continued foreign investment and the upcoming listings of quality companies [20]. - However, earnings growth expectations for HK stocks are relatively low for the next two years, with projected growth rates of 5.4% and 8.3% for the Hang Seng Index [24].