8月1日特讯！中美第四轮谈判结果出炉，美国再一次对华低头

Core Insights - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China reflect a clash of two distinct economic philosophies: Trump's profit-driven mindset versus China's robust supply chain capabilities [1] - The U.S. manufacturing sector's reliance on Chinese supply chains is highlighted by the recent tariff exemptions for critical products, indicating a significant dependency [1] - Major semiconductor companies have shifted their stance from supporting hardline policies against China to advocating for supply chain stability, revealing a pragmatic approach driven by economic interests [2] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The U.S. has intensified targeted actions against China's tech sector, including export controls on AI companies and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which may backfire by harming U.S. companies [4] - Trump's introduction of military topics into trade discussions was swiftly rejected by China, demonstrating China's control over the negotiation agenda [4] - The U.S. is caught in a dilemma, wanting to restrict China's technological advancements while simultaneously needing to maintain its own industrial operations [6] Group 2: China's Supply Chain Strength - China dominates the global rare earth industry, controlling nearly 90% of refining capabilities, which poses a significant barrier for the U.S. [5] - By 2025, China's export reliance on the U.S. is projected to decrease from 19% in 2018 to 15%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and a diversification of trade partners [6] - High-value exports from China, such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, are becoming increasingly important, showcasing the country's evolving export structure [6] Group 3: Future Negotiation Landscape - The U.S. has postponed decisions on tariff exemptions, reflecting a reluctant concession to the realities of the supply chain interdependence [7] - The balance of power in the U.S.-China relationship is shifting, with China gaining more leverage in negotiations due to its control over critical supply chains [9] - The next round of negotiations will see the U.S. facing a resilient Chinese economy that has adapted to pressures and found new growth drivers [12]