美国降息预期为A/H股带来利好，外资流入助力市场反弹

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, alleviating uncertainties in the A/H stock markets, while the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Chinese economy is diminishing [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut - Three potential scenarios for the timing of the Fed's rate cut are outlined: 1. A 25 basis point cut in September if August non-farm payrolls are between 50,000 and 150,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%-4.4% [3] 2. A 50 basis point cut if non-farm payrolls fall below 50,000 and the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4% [3] 3. No cut if non-farm payrolls exceed 150,000 and the unemployment rate is below 4.1%, along with a CPI increase of over 0.4% [3] Group 2: Impact on Chinese Assets - The Fed's monetary easing is expected to significantly support the A/H stock markets, leading to a substantial increase in foreign capital inflow [3] - The appreciation of the RMB may lead to a "slow bull" market for A/H stocks, particularly benefiting sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, leading internet companies in Hong Kong, and the new energy industry [3][4] Group 3: Dollar Liquidity Spillover - The spillover effect of U.S. dollar liquidity post-Fed rate cut is expected to positively impact Chinese assets, benefiting both the A/H stock market and the Chinese bond market [4] - The bond market is anticipated to attract more capital, with a trend of simultaneous gains in both stocks and bonds emerging [4] - Chinese concept stocks, especially in technology sectors, are likely to attract more investment due to lower overseas financing costs [4] Group 4: Asset Allocation in A/H Stocks - Current market conditions suggest that A/H stock allocation remains attractive, particularly in growth sectors such as technology, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The Fed's rate cut is likely to provide additional funding support for these sectors, with expectations of continued benefits from international capital inflows in the coming months [5]