印度GDP增长7.8%背后：夸大了真实的潜在增长

Core Viewpoint - India's GDP growth of 7.8% for the April to June quarter is seen as potentially overstated due to statistical factors, particularly a low deflator impacting the real economic growth assessment [1][4][5] Economic Growth Data - The reported GDP growth of 7.8% significantly exceeds economists' median forecast of 6.7% [1] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Nomura have raised their full-year growth forecasts for India despite concerns over data accuracy [2][6] Deflator and Inflation Adjustment - The GDP deflator used in India is closely tied to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the primary inflation target for the Reserve Bank of India [3] - A negative WPI since May has led to an unusually low GDP deflator, artificially inflating the reported economic growth rate [4] Forecast Adjustments - Nomura has revised its growth forecast for the fiscal year from 6% to 6.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate from 6.1% to 6.7% [6][7] - Despite these upward adjustments, analysts caution that the GDP data does not signal strong underlying demand [7] External Economic Pressures - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods, effective August 27, which is expected to impact economic performance in subsequent months [7][8] - Goldman Sachs estimates that these tariffs could reduce India's annual GDP by 0.9 percentage points, translating to an additional drag of about 20 basis points on actual growth for the remainder of the year [8][9]