美股最动荡月份来了

Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most volatile month for the U.S. market, with uncertainties such as potential Fed rate cuts and political pressures on the Fed adding to the suspense of whether the S&P 500 can maintain its strength after reaching historical highs [2][3]. Market Analysis - Historical data shows that since 1927, the S&P 500 index has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17%. In the last decade, the average decline has been worse at 1.93%, and in the first year of a presidential term, the probability rises to 58% with an average drop of 1.62% [3]. - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 22 times, nearing levels seen at the end of the dot-com bubble, raising concerns about valuation risks. There is a potential for selling pressure as pension and mutual funds rebalance portfolios at the end of September [6]. - Since August, there has been a shift in the market, with cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks leading gains, while large tech stocks have lagged. Non-essential consumer goods ETFs rose by 4.3%, financial sector ETFs by 2.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index increased by 7.3%, significantly outperforming tech and communication sectors, which saw around 1% growth [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with significant declines in non-farm payrolls from May to July, and deteriorating consumer confidence in August. However, retail sales and earnings reports from major retailers indicate that consumer spending remains robust, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not be as severe as feared [6]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate potentially rising slightly to 4.3%. The weak job numbers from July and downward revisions for May and June have heightened expectations for a Fed rate cut [7][8]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated a shift from a cautious stance, acknowledging that inflation risks are tilted upward while employment risks are downward. This suggests a potential adjustment in policy stance may be necessary [7]. - Market expectations for a September rate cut are already priced in, but the probability of more than two cuts this year has dropped from over 50% to below 30% [9]. - Political pressures on the Fed, particularly from President Trump, raise concerns about the Fed's ability to maintain its independence in monetary policy. The potential for Trump to influence Fed appointments could lead to a more dovish monetary policy environment [9].