特朗普“斗法”美联储，又有新剧情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among economists regarding the potential impact of the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the term of Chairman Powell ends next year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's interference could undermine the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation through interest rate setting [2][3]. - Economists warn that investors may be underestimating the threat posed by the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve's independence, with some describing the future of U.S. monetary policy as "chaotic" and "disastrous" [3][5]. - 89 out of 94 economists surveyed stated that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The confirmation hearing for Trump's latest nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it will be expedited before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][9]. - The article highlights a significant test of the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's dismissal of board member Cook, which has led to legal disputes [4][9]. - Economists express concern that if Trump's pressure leads to a loss of the Federal Reserve's independence, it could harm the largest economy in the world [5][10]. Group 3: Future Projections - 42% of surveyed economists believe that Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see a potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a major risk [6]. - A majority of economists (52%) expect that the focus of the Federal Reserve will shift after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [5]. - Despite the potential changes, over a quarter of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that the Federal Reserve will still be able to fulfill its responsibilities, albeit with reduced independence [5].