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赛力斯(601127):业绩强劲 2Q25毛利率新高 强周期驱动下延续量价齐升 维持买入

Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue decline of 4.06% year-on-year to 62.402 billion RMB in 1H25, but net profit increased significantly by 81.03% to 2.94 billion RMB due to growth in high-end model sales and product structure optimization [1] - In 2Q25, the company achieved a revenue of 43.25 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 125.9%, with net profit reaching 2.19 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 193.3% [1] - The gross margin for 1H25 was 28.93%, up approximately 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, while 2Q25 gross margin improved to 29.5%, driven by scale effects and product structure optimization [1] Sales Performance - Total sales in 1H25 reached 198,600 units, with new energy vehicle sales at 172,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 8.2% [1] - The "Wenjie" series accounted for over 85% of total deliveries, with 147,000 units delivered cumulatively [1] - In 2Q25, the "Wenjie" brand delivered 107,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 135.8%, with the M8 and M9 models performing particularly well [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue experiencing volume and price increases in 2H25, driven by the "Wenjie high-end matrix" and the first round of M8 pure electric deliveries [2] - The M8 model is projected to reach monthly deliveries of 20,000 units, maintaining its position as the top-selling SUV in the 400,000 RMB price range [2] - The flagship M9 model is anticipated to lead the luxury market above 500,000 RMB, with cumulative deliveries surpassing 200,000 units [2] Financial Metrics - The sales, management, and R&D expense ratio for 1H25 was approximately 21.5%, with a reduction to 20.9% in 2Q25 due to scale effects [1] - The company maintains a target price of 180.5 RMB, corresponding to a 2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times, indicating a positive outlook on profitability growth [2]