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新泉股份(603179):盈利短暂承压 看好品类与海外扩张

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q2 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase in net profit but a decline compared to the previous quarter, while showing strong revenue growth driven by overseas expansion [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 209 million yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year but down 2.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 5.3%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 3.94 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%, with overseas projects contributing significantly to this growth [2][3]. Regional Performance - For the first half of 2025, total revenue reached 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Domestic revenue was 5.98 billion yuan (up 6.9% year-on-year), while overseas revenue surged to 1.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159% and accounting for 20% of total revenue, up 12 percentage points [2][3]. Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 16.8%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a decline in domestic gross margins [3]. - The company managed to control its expense ratio, which was 10.0% in Q2 2025, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year and 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. Business Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in Europe and North America, with significant investments planned in Slovakia, Germany, and Kentucky [2][4]. - The company has seen substantial growth in its exterior parts segment, with revenue from bumpers and exterior components increasing significantly in recent periods [4]. - The acquisition of a 70% stake in Anhui Ruqi is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the seating business, tapping into a market with a potential scale exceeding 100 billion yuan [4]. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.11 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, and 1.70 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 14%, 25%, and 22% respectively [5]. - Given its strong customer base, global supply capabilities, and entry into the seating market, the company is expected to receive a valuation premium, with a target market capitalization of 27.9 billion to 34.9 billion yuan and a target stock price of 57.2 to 71.5 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 14% to 42% [5].