供给、政治与数据三重施压下历史魔咒再现？全球长期债券或迎“最危险九月”

Group 1 - Historical data indicates that long-term bonds may face a dangerous September, with a median decline of 2% for global government bonds with maturities over 10 years in September over the past decade, marking it as the worst monthly performance of the year [1] - The expectation of government debt expansion is becoming a primary source of pressure, as increased fiscal spending by multiple countries leads to a rise in long-term bond supply, diminishing the yield advantage of shorter-term bonds [5] - Geopolitical disturbances are exacerbating market uncertainty, including persistent inflation in Japan, political turmoil in France due to Prime Minister Borne's confidence vote, and potential pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could further elevate domestic price pressures [5] Group 2 - Market sentiment is showing cautious signs, with institutional investors adopting a defensive posture, focusing on two major risk events: the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data that will validate the reasonableness of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and potential unexpected fluctuations in Eurozone inflation data that could disrupt the consensus on maintaining interest rates by the European Central Bank [5] - Seasonal supply patterns are also a key focus for strategists, as the weak performance of long-term bonds in September is closely related to issuance rhythms, with low issuance in July and August followed by a rebound in September, which explains the seasonal decline from a supply-demand perspective [5][6] - Multiple challenges must be overcome in the bond market this month, including the possibility that continued strong U.S. economic data may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan could lead to a repricing of global interest rates, making September a notably risky month for bonds [6]