Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 01:07Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend with significant movements in both the gold and technology sectors as of September 2 [1] - Gold prices surged to $3,550 due to high expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and geopolitical tensions, leading to a strong influx of investment into gold stocks [3] Gold Sector - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September exceeds 90%, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [3] - Major gold companies like Western Gold and Shengda Resources hit the daily limit, while Zijin Mining rose over 5% [3] - Swiss Bank forecasts gold prices could reach $4,000 next year, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [3] Technology Sector - Alibaba is testing its self-developed AI chips, and Huahong Technology saw a significant stock increase of 9.18% after resuming trading [3] - The U.S. has revoked exemptions for Samsung and SK in China, igniting a strong narrative for domestic semiconductor equipment replacement, with over 10 stocks in the sector hitting the daily limit [3] Policy Environment - The central bank has maintained interest rates while continuing to support technology innovation and green finance, indicating a favorable policy environment for growth [3] - A new fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans covers seven major sectors, including home appliances and automobiles, which may stimulate consumer spending [3] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,875.53 points, showing a 0.46% increase, but technical indicators suggest potential short-term adjustment pressures [3] - Key support is at 3,838 points, with significant financing positions, while resistance is at 3,820 points, requiring a trading volume of 2.6 trillion to break through [3] Fund Flows - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of 3.5 billion, with significant investments in semiconductor and non-ferrous metal stocks [4] - Main funds are shifting from financial stocks to technology and consumer sectors, indicating a change in market sentiment [4] Market Sentiment - Investor confidence index has reached 91, indicating extreme greed, yet the number of declining stocks exceeds those that are rising, suggesting a disconnect between sentiment and actual market performance [4] - Long-term funds, such as the Central Huijin ETF, have accumulated over 1.28 trillion, providing a supportive base for the market [4] Investment Strategy - Recommended to maintain an overall position of around 70%, reducing to 50% if the support level of 3,838 points is breached, while keeping funds available for potential market corrections [5] - Focus areas for investment include gold due to ongoing rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, semiconductors driven by domestic replacement logic, and consumer sectors benefiting from new fiscal policies [5]