贸易顺差+资本回流，人民币中间价逼近7.1

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown a strong performance against the US dollar, with the offshore yuan (USDCNH) breaking below the 7.15 mark, closing at 7.1222, and reflecting a cumulative appreciation of 2.3% this year, attracting significant attention in the capital markets during critical US-China trade negotiations [1][3][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The offshore yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, with a notable closing at 7.1222, approaching the 7.1 threshold [1][3]. - The yuan's appreciation of 2.3% this year is less than that of other major currencies, such as the euro and yen, which have risen by 13.2% and 6.2% respectively [4]. - China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in 2024, with approximately $680 billion recorded in the first seven months of this year, providing support for the yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Analysts suggest that the People's Bank of China is signaling exporters to convert or hedge their dollar assets through a stronger dollar-yuan midpoint rate [3]. - The recent recovery in China's domestic stock market has bolstered confidence and provided additional support for the yuan [3]. - Investment experts encourage sovereign and national investors to consider the yuan as an alternative asset, especially if it maintains strength in volatile conditions [4]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Future Outlook - To push the yuan below 7 against the dollar, increased international capital allocation to China and supportive domestic macroeconomic policies are necessary [4]. - There is a call for more robust easing policies from China to stimulate the economy and real estate market, which would provide sustained momentum for yuan appreciation [4].