本轮牛市，可转债怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is highly similar to the liquidity bull market of 2014, driven by a "policy-liquidity-industry" resonance that boosts indices and risk appetite, with a macro environment characterized by "stock market leading, fundamentals lagging" [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen accelerated growth due to three main factors: liquidity easing, asset reallocation by residents, and policy support, leading to trading volumes consistently exceeding 2 trillion yuan [3][19] - The market is currently in a phase of "valuation repair - oscillation consolidation - breakthrough upward" since September 2024, with significant participation from technology growth sectors [1][20] Group 2: Comparison with 2014 Bull Market - Similar to the 2014 bull market, the current market shows a "decoupling" between the stock market and the macroeconomic fundamentals, with a focus on high-quality development driven by innovation and green transformation [5][10] - The policy framework remains consistent with 2014, emphasizing monetary easing, real estate optimization, and capital market reforms to guide funds into the market [10][12] Group 3: Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market is experiencing a reduction in supply with strong demand, as evidenced by 89 bonds being delisted this year, of which 67 were due to strong redemption, reducing the total stock to 641.451 billion yuan [34][42] - The median conversion premium rate as of August 22, 2025, is 26.40%, with a median price of 133.85 yuan, indicating a lower valuation compared to the peak in 2015, but higher than in 2021 [37][39] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests a focus on convertible bonds with prices below 130 yuan that offer safety margins and upward elasticity, while also considering high-rated, large-scale bonds for liquidity and defensive value [2][42] - Investors are advised to be cautious of high premiums and crowded trades, while looking for opportunities in the market pullbacks that may create "golden pit" scenarios for undervalued bonds [2][42]