万字说透稳定币：新基建还是新风险？

Core Insights - The article discusses the formal implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong, which establishes a licensing system for legal stablecoin issuers, highlighting the growing interest from major companies like JD.com and Ant Group in stablecoins for cross-border payments [1][13] - Stablecoins have seen explosive growth, with their total market capitalization skyrocketing from under $2 billion in 2019 to over $250 billion by early 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate exceeding 100% [1][12] - The article emphasizes the dual nature of stablecoins as both a stable financial instrument and a potential source of systemic risk, urging a balanced perspective on their benefits and challenges [1][31] What is "Stablecoin"? - Stablecoins are digital currencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar or euro, providing a solution to the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum [3][4] - They can be categorized into four types based on their collateral mechanisms: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, algorithmic, and commodity-collateralized, with fiat-collateralized stablecoins dominating the market [4][5] Market Overview - As of August 2025, the stablecoin market is characterized by a duopoly, with USDT holding a market cap of over $167 billion (approximately 60% of the total market) and USDC at around $67 billion (about 24%) [8][12] - The dominance of USDT is attributed to its extensive network effects and liquidity, while USDC's appeal lies in its compliance and transparency, bolstered by regular audits [8][12] Profit Model and Distribution - The primary profit source for fiat-collateralized stablecoins is the "reserve interest margin," where issuers invest user funds in low-risk, high-liquidity assets, generating significant interest income without distributing it to users [10][11] - For instance, Tether's holdings in US Treasuries and repurchase agreements exceed $100 billion, yielding nearly $400 million monthly in interest [10][11] Value of Stablecoins - Stablecoins serve as a core liquidity mechanism in the crypto market, facilitating transactions, lending, and derivatives trading, and are increasingly integrated into mainstream payment systems [12][13] - They offer advantages in cross-border payments, with lower costs and faster transaction times compared to traditional systems like SWIFT, especially in high-inflation regions [12][13] Development Trends and Compliance - The regulatory landscape for stablecoins has become clearer, with various jurisdictions, including the US and EU, implementing frameworks that enhance market confidence and reduce legal uncertainties [13][14] - Major institutions, including PayPal and Visa, are entering the stablecoin space, further legitimizing their use and expanding their application scenarios [14][15] Regional Development Outlook: Hong Kong vs. Mainland China - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a global hub for stablecoin innovation, with plans for a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin and offshore RMB stablecoin, while mainland China remains cautious, focusing on the digital yuan [27][28][29] - The regulatory environment in Hong Kong is seen as a potential model for future stablecoin frameworks, while mainland China is exploring the possibility of introducing RMB stablecoins under controlled conditions [29][30] Opportunities and Risks for Enterprises - Stablecoins present significant opportunities for enterprises, enhancing cross-border transaction efficiency and enabling innovative financial management practices [32][33] - However, companies must navigate regulatory compliance and potential risks associated with stablecoin usage, including market volatility and governance issues [34][35]