【UNFX课堂】政治干预的阴影：美联储独立性保卫战与全球经济的潜在震荡

Core Viewpoint - The warning from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence highlights a growing tension between U.S. politics and monetary policy, which could have profound implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the effectiveness and credibility of monetary policy, as historical instances of political interference have led to inflation spikes, currency devaluation, and stock market declines [1][2]. - Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including threats against Chairman Powell and legal actions against Governor Lisa Cook, reflect a desire for direct influence over monetary policy, particularly in terms of interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a delicate balance in its monetary policy decisions, with inflation data remaining above the 2% target and concerns about a weakening labor market following a disappointing July employment report [2]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are high, with nearly 90% probability, indicating concerns over economic slowdown and a potential shift towards more accommodative policies [2]. Group 3: Global Financial Implications - Erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to significant uncertainty in global financial markets, as the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency is partly based on the strength and independence of its monetary policy [3]. - A loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets could result in capital outflows, dollar depreciation, and potential ripple effects across global financial markets, impacting borrowing costs, financial stability, and the global trade and investment landscape [3].