Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the selection of Federal Reserve board members and interest rate policy movements, with a high likelihood of a rate cut in September [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting is at 89.6%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 10.4% [1] - Economic data shows weakness, with the ISM manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months and the core PCE price index growth slowing to 2.8% [3] Group 2 - There are concerns about political interference as the Trump administration is reportedly considering replacing three Federal Reserve board members, raising questions about the independence of monetary policy [4] - The statement from Treasury Secretary Becerra serves to reassure the market, highlighting that the White House does not seek to disrupt the current monetary policy framework [4] - The market is divided in its expectations for the third quarter economic data, with optimistic views supporting moderate rate cuts and pessimistic views fearing a wave of corporate debt defaults leading to deeper easing [4]
爱华中文官网：劳动节美股休市 市场盯紧美联储
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 02:28