Ge Long Hui·2025-09-02 02:55Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about the growth potential driven by AI across multiple dimensions, particularly in video production, e-commerce, and advertising marketing, with a maintained buy rating and target price of HKD 84.0 [1] AI-Driven Performance Growth - The global video production market is projected to reach USD 140 billion by 2024, with AI penetration expected to exceed 50% in the long term, translating to a potential market size of USD 20-30 billion in the next three years [2] - The number of global AI video creators has surpassed 100 million since 2025, marking a 70% year-on-year increase, while AI content viewership on the platform grew by 321% from January to July [2] - The OneRec recommendation model currently covers 25% of peak traffic on the platform, optimizing recommendations and sorting, leading to over 1% growth in total viewing time and reducing costs to about 10% of traditional engines [2] - Daily consumption of AI-generated marketing materials exceeds RMB 30 million, with the company leveraging large models to enhance ad matching and bidding efficiency, boosting overall ad spending on the platform [2] E-commerce Business Resilience - The company anticipates e-commerce GMV growth to exceed industry levels at +15% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, driven by improved supply chain capabilities and leveraging consumption policies [3] - Enhanced integration of short videos and live-streaming e-commerce is expected to improve merchant traffic acquisition efficiency [3] - The OneRec recommendation system has been implemented in shelf scenarios to further drive e-commerce GMV growth [3] Advertising Business Opportunities - In the first half of 2025, the company maintained rapid growth in content-related advertising, although growth may slightly slow in the second half due to higher base effects [3] - The integration with enterprise WeChat and other channels is expected to enhance advertising effectiveness in local services, with strong growth anticipated for FY25 [3] - Despite an overall contraction in the food delivery sector's advertising spending, the company's low exposure to this sector minimizes the impact on overall advertising revenue growth [3]