UBS(US:UBS) 智通财经网·2025-09-02 02:54Group 1 - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to begin a series of interest rate cuts starting in September, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points over four consecutive meetings [1][2] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose slightly to 2.9% year-on-year, while the overall PCE remained stable at 2.6%, indicating effective control of price pressures [1] - The current risks are more concentrated in the labor market, with recent indicators showing a softening in employment demand, despite the unemployment rate remaining low [1] Group 2 - The divergence in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate decisions was highlighted by two dissenting votes in July, marking the first such occurrence in over 30 years [2] - Recent statements from Fed officials, including Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Williams, have leaned towards a more dovish stance, with indications that further rate cuts may be considered if employment data weakens [2] - Given the current inflation near target levels and a resilient yet slowing economic growth, UBS anticipates the Fed to restart its easing cycle in the upcoming meetings [2]