现货黄金一度突破3500美元 中长期国际金价怎么看

Core Viewpoint - Recent strong performance of gold prices driven by factors including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The attempt by Trump to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, leading to a shift from dollar assets to gold [1] - Renewed geopolitical tensions have increased market risk aversion, contributing to rising gold prices [1] - Recent U.S. economic data, including July PCE and revised Q2 GDP, supports expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further bolstering gold prices [1][2] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, international gold price volatility is expected to increase, with prices remaining high due to ongoing expectations of a Fed rate cut [2] - Long-term, gold prices are anticipated to remain in an upward trend driven by persistent market uncertainty, strong demand for gold from central banks, and ongoing expectations for rate cuts [2][3] Group 3: Market Predictions - Analysts predict that the "Trump 2.0" policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, will stabilize, while "rate cut trades" will provide strong momentum for gold price increases [3] - The combination of "rate cut trades" and "Trump 2.0" policies is expected to catalyze gold prices until 2025, with central bank gold reserves providing robust support [3]