天风证券：给予航发动力买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that changes in customer demand have impacted delivery, leading to a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the company in the first half of 2025, but a notable increase in contract liabilities suggests a gradual recovery in demand [2][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 141.0 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 24.0%, and a net profit of 0.9 billion yuan, down 84.6% year-over-year [2]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 79.3 billion yuan, a decline of 35.4% year-over-year, with a net profit of 0.8 billion yuan, down 80.8% year-over-year [2]. - The gross margin for the second quarter increased by 0.79 percentage points to 11.9%, while the net margin decreased by 2.40 percentage points to 1.5% [2]. - The company’s contract liabilities reached 62.5 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting a 39.4% increase from the beginning of the year, indicating potential future demand recovery [2][4]. Cost Structure - The company’s operating expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 9.1%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-over-year [2]. - Breakdown of expenses includes: - Sales expense ratio at 0.9%, down 0.67 percentage points year-over-year - Management expense ratio at 4.9%, up 1.16 percentage points year-over-year - R&D expense ratio at 1.5%, up 0.51 percentage points year-over-year due to increased R&D tasks - Financial expense ratio at 1.8%, up 1.01 percentage points year-over-year, with financial expenses of 2.6 billion yuan, a 71.1% increase year-over-year [2]. Subsidiary Performance - The subsidiary LiYang Power showed positive development, with revenue from aviation engines and related products at 128.9 billion yuan, down 24.9% year-over-year [3]. - The South Company capitalized on opportunities in the general aviation engine market, obtaining production licenses for the AES100 engine and signing contracts for six units [3]. - The company is deeply involved in the development of domestic commercial engines, positioning itself to benefit from the growth of domestic large aircraft [3]. Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is the only domestic leader capable of developing a full range of aviation engines and maintains a positive overall development outlook [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.17 billion yuan, 9.02 billion yuan, and 12.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 173.74, 118.90, and 87.52 [4].