Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-02 06:59Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Shenhua's (01088) earnings and dividends for the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with a 15% year-on-year decline in net profit, aligning with the profit forecast median [1] Financial Performance - Net profit for the second quarter decreased by 10% year-on-year to 13.3 billion RMB [1] - The interim dividend declared is 0.98 RMB per share, with a payout ratio of 79%, higher than the guidance and last year's 76.5% [1] Earnings Forecast - UBS slightly raised its earnings estimates for China Shenhua by 3% and 7% for the next two years [1] - The target price has been adjusted from 27.8 HKD to 29.6 HKD, while maintaining a "Sell" rating [1] Market Outlook - The company's stable earnings are attributed to effective cost control, and the dividend payout ratio exceeded expectations [1] - Seasonal weakness in thermal coal demand is anticipated as summer ends, which may lead to a slightly positive reaction from investors regarding the latest performance [1] - Recent surveys with industry experts indicate that the anti-involution policies in the coal sector have had limited actual impact on the thermal coal supply side [1]