BBMarkets蓝莓外汇：非农数据临近，黄金还能保持强势吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by institutional trading rather than fundamental changes in the market, with a focus on emotional trading and speculative movements [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Current market attention is on upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate minutes, with many betting on a rate cut in September, which has amplified bullish sentiment [3]. - The rise in gold prices to 3489 is attributed more to speculative trading rather than a significant influx of safe-haven funds [3]. Technical Analysis - The recent price action is characterized by a pattern of "low-level oscillation—bullish breakout—high-level tug-of-war" [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 3460, 3456-3450, 3438-3430, and extreme levels at 3415-3400 [5]. - Key resistance levels are noted at 3480-3483, 3489, 3493-3496, with a psychological barrier at 3500, which could lead to a push towards 3520 if breached [6]. Market Dynamics - The market is significantly influenced by institutional control, leading to a decrease in the reliability of conventional technical signals [8]. - The current trading environment resembles a "washout—breakout—inducement" scenario, making the effectiveness of key levels more critical than traditional indicators [8]. Trading Strategies - For bearish positions, consider light shorting around 3480-3483, targeting 3470-3460, and monitor for a breakdown below 3456-3450 [9]. - For bullish positions, only consider short-term buys in the 3456-3450 range, aiming for 3460-3470, while avoiding chasing prices at high levels [9]. - In extreme scenarios, if prices drop below 3438-3430, refrain from bottom-fishing as further declines to 3415-3400 may occur; conversely, if prices break above 3500 to 3520, consider light shorting with strict stop-loss measures above 3525 [9].