季节性下跌？全球长债迎来“黑九月”

Core Viewpoint - Global long-term government bonds are experiencing one of the worst months in history due to seasonal selling pressure and multiple structural factors, leading to a continuous rise in long-term bond yields [1] Group 1: Seasonal Trends - September has historically been a "cursed month" for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% for government bonds with maturities over 10 years in the past decade [2] - The typical increase in long-term bond issuance in September is a primary reason for the seasonal decline, as there is little issuance in July and August [2] Group 2: Structural Factors - The structural reform of the Dutch pension system is significantly impacting the European long-term bond market, with indicators of future 30-year euro swaps recently rising [4] - The new pension system requires younger members to invest more in risk assets like stocks, reducing the demand for long-term hedging tools, while older members prefer safe assets like bonds but will shorten their duration hedges [6] Group 3: Market Challenges - Global long-term bond markets face additional challenges, including scrutiny over Japan's 10-year and 30-year bond auctions amid leadership uncertainties and expectations of central bank interest rate hikes [7] - In the U.S., upcoming employment data is a key risk point for the market, as traders await confirmation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7]