美国终于发现：不管咋折腾都打不赢中国，不如转身去收割印度吧！

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving geopolitical and economic dynamics between the US and China, highlighting the resilience of the Chinese economy despite US efforts to contain it through tariffs and technology restrictions [1][3] - It also examines the shift in US strategy towards India as a new focal point for countering China, while addressing the challenges and responses from India amid US sanctions and economic pressures [4][5][9] Group 1: US-China Relations - Since the trade war began in 2018, the US has implemented high tariffs and technology restrictions to curb China's growth, but China's economy has shown remarkable resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of around 5% in 2024 [1] - In 2025, the US trade deficit with China is expected to surge to nearly $100 billion, indicating ongoing economic tensions despite potential tariff increases under a possible Trump administration [3] - China's "Belt and Road" initiative and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries have helped mitigate external pressures, contrasting with the US's struggles with inflation and supply chain disruptions [3] Group 2: US-India Relations - India's population is projected to exceed 1.5 billion by 2025, with a rapidly expanding middle class and a booming digital economy, making it a strategic target for the US [4] - The US has imposed sanctions on Indian companies for alleged support of the Russian military, leading to a significant drop in Indian exports to the US, particularly in pharmaceuticals and automotive parts [5] - The aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have resulted in over $100 billion in capital outflows from India between 2022 and 2023, causing the Indian rupee to hit historical lows [6] Group 3: India's Strategic Response - The Indian government, under Modi, has emphasized "strategic autonomy" and plans to deepen energy cooperation with Russia while maintaining a 6.4% economic growth rate [9] - To counter US sanctions, India is accelerating its "Production-Linked Incentive Scheme" and simplifying foreign investment approval processes, reducing tariffs in key sectors like electronics and semiconductors to 5% [9] - Despite US pressures, India has resumed high-level dialogues with China, leading to a notable recovery in bilateral trade by the second half of 2025 [9] Group 4: Broader Implications - The US strategy to "harvest" India may backfire, as it has not only failed to weaken India-Russia ties but has also pushed India closer to BRICS nations [11] - The Reserve Bank of India is advancing the internationalization of the rupee and plans to establish an independent cross-border payment system by 2026 [11] - There is growing concern within the US regarding unilateral policies that could undermine the dollar's dominance, as highlighted by warnings from Democratic lawmakers [11]