桥水基金达利欧：美国债务心脏病三年内发作，美联储要么允许利率上升，引发债务违约危机，要么印钞票，购买别人不会买的债务！资金正从美债流向黄金

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, believes that years of massive deficits and unsustainable debt growth have pushed the U.S. economy to the brink of a debt crisis, with a new budget proposal likely leading to significant overspending that could trigger a debt crisis in about three years, with a margin of one or two years [1] - Dalio points out that the widening wealth gap, value system divide, and collapse of trust have led to more extreme U.S. policies, drawing parallels to the political and social situations of the 1930s and 1940s globally [3] - He warns that the imbalance in the U.S. budget will necessitate large-scale issuance of new debt, but demand for this debt is unlikely to keep pace with supply, leading to skepticism about U.S. fiscal credibility [3] Group 2 - Dalio states that the weakened political center will undermine confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to defend the value of the currency, reducing the attractiveness of holding dollar-denominated debt assets [3] - He highlights that international investors have begun shifting funds from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. debt [3] - The Federal Reserve faces a tough choice: either allow interest rates to rise, which could trigger a debt default crisis, or print money to buy debt that no one else wants, both of which would harm the dollar [3]