230亿美元大撤退！日本人正把牛市"拱手让给"外国人

Core Insights - Japan's financial market is experiencing a long-awaited reflation trade, but domestic investors are surprisingly absent from this rally [1][4] - Foreign investors have driven the Tokyo stock market to record highs, while also selling off Japanese government bonds, leading to a peak in 30-year bond yields [1][5] - The absence of retail investors in Japan is a notable characteristic of the current market surge, with analysts suggesting that their return could further boost stock prices [4][6] Group 1: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign capital inflow this year is on track to reach the highest level since the introduction of Abenomics in 2013, with a significant impact on the stock market [1][5] - The shift in market structure is being led by foreign investors, who are reshaping Japan's capital market landscape [5][6] - The trend of value stocks outperforming growth stocks reflects typical characteristics of a reflation trade, indicating a more dispersed economic growth signal [6] Group 2: Domestic Investor Sentiment - Japanese retail investors have withdrawn approximately $23 billion this year, indicating a cautious outlook on market prospects [4][6] - Analysts note that the sentiment among retail investors has shifted from extreme pessimism to a more positive outlook recently, which could be beneficial for the market [6] - The participation of domestic investors will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the current market rally, which is primarily driven by foreign investment [6] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - Despite significant fluctuations in the stock and bond markets, the yen has remained relatively stable, raising questions about the lack of capital repatriation [7] - Japanese institutions have heavily invested in U.S. Treasury markets, leading to losses after the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, which has contributed to the capital remaining overseas [7] - The current bond market presents unique arbitrage opportunities due to the yield differential between U.S. and Japanese bonds, but domestic investors face higher costs for investing in the U.S. market [7]