财经观察｜金价再创新高！避险、增储、降息三重驱动下，中长期国际金价如何走？

Core Insights - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of over 33% [1][3] Price Movements - As of September 2, COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,563.3 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.49%, peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce; spot gold was at $3,493.38 per ounce, rising 0.52% and hitting a high of $3,508.69 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with certain brands exceeding 1,030 RMB per gram; for instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry is priced at 1,041 RMB per gram, while Lao Miao and Chow Tai Fook are at 1,034 RMB and 1,037 RMB per gram respectively [5] Market Drivers - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by three main factors: concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to Trump's actions, increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions, and economic data supporting expectations for interest rate cuts [6] - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to persist due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, reinforcing gold's appeal [7] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts remain strong, with recent economic and employment data aligning with the conditions necessary for such cuts, further supporting gold prices [8] - Analysts suggest that the "rate cut trade" will inject strong momentum into gold price increases, with anticipated adjustments in U.S. monetary policy continuing to support gold in the second half of the year [8]