降息预期引爆小盘股狂欢！杰富瑞预警：资金出逃与盈利隐忧仍存

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies' latest U.S. stock strategy report highlights a strong performance of small-cap stocks in August, ending a period of underperformance compared to large-cap stocks, but warns of underlying risks [1][2]. Summary by Sections Small-Cap Stock Performance - The Russell 2000 index rose by 7% in August, marking its best performance for the month since 2000, and has rebounded 35% since the low on April 8, outperforming large-cap stocks by 441 basis points [1]. - Micro-cap stocks performed exceptionally well, increasing by 9.3% in August and 47% from their low [1]. Drivers of Small-Cap Stock Rebound - The rebound in small-cap stocks was primarily driven by low market capitalization, low-quality, and unprofitable companies, with low market cap stocks rising by 10.5% in August and 52.8% since April 8 [2]. - Unprofitable companies saw an 8.5% increase in August and a 52.4% rise from their low, while high-beta stocks rebounded by 63.8% from their low [2]. - Key factors for the small-cap stock rebound include rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and corporate earnings exceeding expectations [2]. Fund Flows and Earnings Outlook - Despite the strong short-term performance of small-cap stocks, there has been a continuous outflow from small-cap stock ETFs, totaling $11.4 billion since the market low [2]. - Analysts expect large-cap stock earnings growth to continue to outpace small-cap stocks in Q3, with Q4 being a critical period for crossing thresholds [2]. Stock Style Performance - Cyclical stocks showed robust performance, rising by 7.6% in August and 40.2% from their low, with a year-to-date increase of 10% [2]. - Long-term growth stocks increased by 6.8%, 33.1%, and 2.4% respectively [2]. - As the Russell 2000 index rebounded, bond proxy products lagged, rising by 17.7% from their low [2]. Active Management Fund Performance - Since early April, actively managed funds have generally underperformed benchmark indices, with only large-cap value funds outperforming [6]. - Among all funds tracked by Jefferies this year, only 28.4% have outperformed their benchmarks [6].