美股新高之后牛市继续？瑞银唱多：高估值但非泡沫，看好AI与电力等板块

Group 1 - UBS's latest report indicates that the US stock market has reached new highs due to better-than-expected Q2 earnings, particularly in energy-related companies, and an increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - UBS forecasts that the S&P 500 index will reach 6800 points by June 2026, suggesting that investors with insufficient stock exposure should gradually increase their investment proportions and take advantage of market pullbacks [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen 30% from its low in April, with current valuation levels being high compared to historical averages, as indicated by a forward P/E ratio of 22.5 and a Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio of 37.9, both at the 99th percentile over the past 20 years [1][2] Group 2 - UBS does not believe there is a bubble in the market, as corporate earnings are growing, with EPS estimates for the S&P 500 raised to $270 for 2025 (an 8% increase) and $290 for 2026 (a 7.5% increase) [2] - Investor sentiment appears cautious, with surveys indicating a net bearish outlook among individual investors and institutional holdings reflecting caution [2][3] - UBS highlights that the current P/E ratios of major tech companies are significantly lower than those during the internet bubble, with the average expected P/E of the "Magnificent Seven" at 28 times compared to 82 times for leading companies in 1999 [2] Group 3 - The margin debt ratio, a part of market capitalization, is currently at 1.8%, close to a 30-year low of 1.5%, indicating a stable market environment [3] - UBS maintains a "neutral" rating on US stocks, focusing on specific sectors such as financials, technology, healthcare, utilities, and communication services, while also seeking structural growth opportunities in AI, electricity, and energy [3]