平替美债，黄金再次爆发

Group 1 - Central banks are expected to increase their gold and foreign exchange reserves over the next five years, with 72% anticipating a moderate rise, 17% expecting no change, and 6% predicting a significant decline [1] - Demand for gold continues to rise as central banks increase their holdings, leading to a favorable outlook for gold prices [1] - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds as the most sought-after asset by central banks, with total gold reserves approaching $4 trillion, exceeding the $3.8 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence erosion," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional demand for precious metals continues to drive prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3]