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百利好丨美联储9月降息在即,市场预期已超85%
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 09:02

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a rate cut in September, with futures markets indicating an over 85% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1][3] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled the imminent start of a rate-cutting cycle, with notable support from Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams [3] - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted concerns over a weakening labor market, suggesting a need for policy adjustment despite ongoing inflation risks [3] Group 2 - The current U.S. administration has exerted significant political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with the President publicly criticizing rate policies [4] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have emerged, with two board members appointed by the current President advocating for immediate rate cuts [4] - A recent personnel change at the Federal Reserve, with the dismissal of a sitting board member and the nomination of a rate-cut supporter, could further influence monetary policy direction [4] Group 3 - Economic data indicates a weakening labor market, with July non-farm payrolls dropping to 73,000 and labor force participation rate falling to 62.2%, prompting a shift in the Fed's policy stance [5] - Despite the labor market slowdown, inflation pressures remain, with July CPI rising 2.7% year-over-year and PPI increasing 3.3%, presenting a challenge for the Fed to balance between addressing unemployment and inflation risks [5]