暴涨后，又是大变数！

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have risen for the fifth consecutive trading day, reaching a four-month high of $3489.78, just shy of the historical high of $3500, and closing at $3476.08 [1] - During European trading, gold briefly surpassed $3500, hitting $3508.49, and is currently hovering around $3483 [1][16] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - There is a significant expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with the probability rising to 89.6% [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data will be crucial for guiding the Fed's decision-making process [3] - Economists warn that the ongoing conflict between President Trump and the Fed could undermine the Fed's credibility and lead to higher inflation and loss of confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [4][5] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Outlook - Wall Street is optimistic about the stock market, with Evercore ISI predicting the S&P 500 index could reach 7750 by the end of next year, representing a 20% increase from the current level [10] - Analysts suggest that the S&P 500 may experience a decline of 5% to 10% this fall before rebounding to between 6800 and 7000 by year-end [10] Group 4: International Relations and Trade - President Trump announced that India has proposed to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero, but he criticized the timing of this proposal [6][7] - Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated, with Venezuela's President Maduro claiming that the country faces the greatest threat in a century due to U.S. military presence [12][14]