国际金价、沪银续创历史新高，沪金何时才会跟上？新一轮牛市开启了吗？

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high due to strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a continued weakening of the dollar, with spot gold peaking at $3508.70 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 0.7% [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are primarily driven by recent weak U.S. economic data, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the September policy meeting according to CME FedWatch [2] - Key economic indicators include a significant drop in July non-farm payrolls to 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, alongside a decline in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest in nearly three years [2] - Manufacturing jobs have seen negative growth for three consecutive months, with a reduction of 11,000 jobs in July [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have further supported precious metals, with recent missile attacks by Houthi forces on Israeli oil tankers escalating market risk aversion [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia continue to influence market sentiment [2] Group 3: Physical Demand - Positive trends in physical demand for gold are noted, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 73.96 million ounces, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces for the ninth consecutive month [3] - The Saudi central bank's recent purchase of $4 million in silver ETFs indicates a growing trend in silver investment demand [3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have risen to 977.68 tons, up from 967.94 tons, reflecting increased investor interest [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Multiple futures companies maintain an optimistic outlook for precious metals, with Everbright Futures highlighting strong industrial demand for silver as a key driver for price increases [4] - Hongyuan Futures suggests that the dovish signals from Fed Chairman Powell regarding employment trends, combined with ongoing global central bank purchases of gold, may lead to a bullish trend for precious metals [4] - Shanghai Zhongti Futures emphasizes the potential for increased volatility in gold prices, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases [4] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Investors are advised to look for buying opportunities on price dips, as the overall trend for gold and silver remains strong amid expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could significantly influence the Fed's decision on interest rates and, consequently, precious metal prices [5]