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Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, with traders now estimating an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut, up from 75% prior to Powell's remarks [1][3] - Powell indicated that the risks to employment are increasing, suggesting that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance to address these concerns, which opens the door for a potential rate cut as early as September [1][3] - Recent inflation data continues to rebound, and Powell believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation will accumulate in the coming months, although he considers most of these effects to be one-time events [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be crucial in determining the pace and magnitude of any potential rate cuts, as it may provide decisive guidance for the Federal Reserve [4][5] - Goldman Sachs traders suggest that if August's non-farm employment growth falls below 100,000, it could solidify the case for a September rate cut, especially under political pressure [5] - The weekly initial jobless claims data will also serve as a reference point for interest rate expectations [5]