布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：通胀高企消费仍强，美国经济呈现韧性表现

Core Insights - The latest inflation data indicates that the economic heat in the U.S. has not significantly dissipated, with core price indicators continuing to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [1][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking the highest level since February, and up 0.1 percentage points from June [1][3] - The core PCE increased by 0.3% month-over-month, while the overall PCE rose by 0.2%, with year-over-year growth at 2.6%, all aligning with market expectations [3] Economic Indicators - Despite high inflation, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have not diminished, with analysts suggesting that policymakers may focus more on labor market performance [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if employment data shows weakness, he would support more aggressive rate cuts, signaling a potential easing of monetary policy [3][5] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist, Ellen Zentner, believes there is still a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, as the Fed weighs the risks of persistent inflation against a weakening job market [5] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumer spending showed resilience, with personal consumption expenditures increasing by 0.5% month-over-month in July, and personal income rising by 0.4%, indicating that purchasing power remains relatively unaffected by rising prices [5] - Service prices increased by 3.6% year-over-year, becoming the main driver of inflation, while goods prices only saw a slight increase of 0.5% [5] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7% year-over-year, which has somewhat alleviated overall inflationary pressures [5] Future Outlook - As the Federal Reserve's next meeting approaches, attention will be focused on upcoming employment and inflation data, which may determine whether the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle as scheduled [7]