Core Viewpoint - Chinese exporters appear to have strong bargaining power in trade with the U.S., bearing only 9% of the cost burden from tariffs imposed by President Trump earlier this year, contrary to U.S. officials' claims of a victorious stance in the global tariff situation [1][3]. Group 1: Cost Distribution Analysis - U.S. importers are caught in the middle of the supply chain, unable to fully pass on costs to the end market or exporters, leading them to compress profit margins as a response [3]. - A regression analysis comparing shipping volumes, tariff rates, and changes in U.S. import prices indicates that from April to July, the average price of goods imported from China decreased by 2.4%, while actual tariffs increased by 27 percentage points [3][6]. - The estimated cost burden on Chinese exporters is significantly lower than the global average of 40%, with U.S. importers expected to bear half of the costs and U.S. consumers covering the remaining 8% to 10% [5]. Group 2: Comparative Tariff Burden - ASEAN, Japan, and the EU are expected to bear a much larger share of tariff costs, with ASEAN and Japan estimated to shoulder 20% and 37% respectively [6]. - The 9% tariff rate on Chinese goods is considerably lower than the 66% rate reported by some U.S. retail giants to their Chinese suppliers, indicating that Chinese firms have managed to limit their share of the tariff burden [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The tariff costs are projected to gradually impact U.S. consumer inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with estimates suggesting a potential CPI increase of about 1 percentage point and a core CPI increase of approximately 1.1 percentage points if actual tax rates remain between 16% and 17% [6]. - The main factors influencing future cost distribution will be whether exporters can further reduce prices and whether importers can continue to absorb cost pressures [6].
掌握议价权，中国商品无惧关税挑战