市场热情重燃，黄金突破3500美元再创新高

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a record high, with spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce and silver exceeding $40 per ounce, driven by various economic factors and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold prices have increased over 30% year-to-date, while silver prices have risen over 40% this year [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $3800 per ounce for gold and $40.9 per ounce for silver by Q4 2025, with potential for upward surprises [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to reduced trade conflict impacts, deteriorating U.S. non-farm data, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the rising holdings in gold ETFs indicate increased investment interest in gold [2][3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have exceeded 85%, contributing to bullish sentiment for gold [3] - The overall demand for safe-haven assets remains strong due to uncertainties in the U.S. economy and policy [3][4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with ongoing central bank purchases and concerns over the U.S. dollar's long-term credit [4][6] - The structural narrative for investing in gold is solid, as global gold ETF holdings continue to rise, reflecting a shift away from reliance on the dollar [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Gold is viewed as a key diversification asset amid rising inflation and economic uncertainties, maintaining its status as a "safe-haven" investment [5][6] - The limited supply of gold and potential shifts in investment portfolios could significantly impact market dynamics [6]