债务风暴再起！政治危机叠加财政黑洞，英德法30年期国债收益率创多年新高

Core Viewpoint - Long-term government bond yields in major European economies are rising sharply, with the UK, Germany, and France reaching their highest levels since the financial crisis, driven by concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The UK 30-year bond yield has risen to 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have reached 3.41% and 4.51%, respectively, marking their highest levels since 2011 and 2009 [1]. - The UK's budget deficit is projected at £35 billion, raising investor concerns about fiscal sustainability [5]. - France's budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP last year, complicating fiscal consolidation efforts [5]. Group 2: Political and Fiscal Context - Political instability in the UK and France is exacerbating market concerns regarding fiscal coherence and the ability to manage debt pressures [4][5]. - The UK government is facing challenges in establishing effective fiscal policies amid cabinet reshuffles and budgetary shortfalls [5]. - France's government is attempting to implement a $51 billion budget cut plan to curb deficits, but political divisions hinder progress [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The rising yields have led to a decline in demand for long-term bonds, with the UK Debt Management Office reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds to historical lows [5]. - Traditional buyers, such as pension funds, are showing decreased demand, contributing to market volatility [5]. - European stock markets are under pressure, and there is an increase in risk-averse sentiment among investors [1]. Group 4: Inflation and Central Bank Policies - Persistent inflation concerns and uncertainty regarding central bank policies are significant factors driving up yields [6][7]. - High inflation in the UK may limit the Bank of England's ability to cut interest rates further, impacting economic stimulus [7]. - The Eurozone's inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to market speculation that the European Central Bank will maintain high interest rates [7]. Group 5: Global Context - US Treasury yields are also rising, reflecting a global decline in risk appetite among investors [8]. - Concerns over high debt levels and trade policies in both the US and Europe may contribute to new inflationary pressures, further elevating global long-term interest rates [8]. - Analysts warn of a "chronic vicious cycle" in the European bond market, where debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate fiscal burdens [8].