蒙牛销售下滑31亿元：总裁高飞正找第二曲线丨乳业财报观察

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is facing a contraction, with Mengniu's performance continuing to decline, while Yili shows more stability in its financial results [1][2][4]. Group 1: Mengniu's Financial Performance - Mengniu's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 6.95% year-on-year to 41.567 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 16.37% to 2.046 billion yuan [1]. - Specific revenue breakdown for Mengniu includes liquid milk at 32.19 billion yuan (down 11.2%), ice cream at 3.88 billion yuan (up 15.0%), milk powder at 1.68 billion yuan (up 2.5%), cheese at 2.37 billion yuan (up 12.3%), and other businesses at 1.45 billion yuan (up 16.9%) [1]. - Mengniu's gross margin improved to 41.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to declining raw milk prices [7]. Group 2: Yili's Financial Performance - Yili's revenue increased by 3.37% year-on-year to 61.933 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 4.39% to 7.2 billion yuan [2]. - Yili's revenue breakdown includes liquid milk at 36.13 billion yuan (down 2.1%), milk powder and dairy products at 16.578 billion yuan (up 14.3%), and cold drinks at 8.23 billion yuan (up 12.4%) [2]. - Yili's gross margin improved to 34.2%, up 0.6 percentage points [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dairy market is experiencing a contraction, with overall dairy product sales down 9.6% year-on-year as of June 2025, and offline sales down 12.7% [1][4]. - Yili acknowledged that terminal sales prices are continuously declining, influenced by a shift from packaged to non-packaged products [4]. - The overall demand for liquid milk remains relatively stable, but packaged liquid milk is under pressure due to competition from ready-to-drink tea and other untracked liquid milk products [4]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Mengniu is attempting to expand new channels and strengthen online and offline sales partnerships, including collaborations with major brands like Starbucks and Bawang Tea [10][11]. - Mengniu's strategy includes a focus on "refined operations and efficiency improvement," with a 7.1% reduction in total operating expenses to 13.814 billion yuan [16]. - Mengniu is also pursuing a second round of share buybacks while maintaining its dividend payout ratio [18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Yili is optimistic about future growth in its milk powder, adult powder, and cheese segments, which are expected to enhance gross margins and profitability [9]. - Mengniu has not yet developed a significant new business line comparable to Yili's milk powder success, which poses a challenge for its future growth [3][9]. - The dairy industry is projected to face ongoing challenges, with upstream losses in the dairy farming sector estimated at 70 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025 [6].