历史新高！黄金，卷土重来？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of further increases in the coming months [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Performance - London spot gold has surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce, marking a new historical high after six consecutive days of increases [1]. - COMEX gold and silver futures also hit record highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,578.4 per ounce and COMEX silver reaching $41.99 per ounce, the highest levels since 2012 [1]. - Domestic gold and silver futures in China also saw significant gains, with the main gold contract closing at 804.32 yuan per gram, up 1.21%, and the main silver contract at 9,824 yuan per kilogram, up 2.33% [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Financial institutions indicate that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are the primary short-term drivers for gold prices, with a 89.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2]. - The market is reacting to macroeconomic policies and political risks, with expectations of renewed interest rate cuts enhancing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Predictions - Analysts predict that the breakout above $3,500 per ounce for gold will initiate a new upward trend, with silver expected to follow suit due to its industrial applications [3]. - The UBS report suggests that gold prices will continue to reach new highs in the coming quarters, supported by low interest rates and rising geopolitical risks [4]. - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar as a key pricing factor [5].