东亚银行：近月美国劳工市场显著放缓，美联储降息25个基点可能性较大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of slowing down, with expectations for non-farm payrolls to remain below 100,000 for August, and an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3% [1] - The Chief Economist of East Asia Bank, Zhuo Liang, agrees with the assessment of a slowing labor market and suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this month, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - There is a possibility of data revisions from the statistical bureau, as past non-farm payroll data has shown considerable volatility, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Zhuo Liang forecasts a total interest rate reduction of 50 basis points in the second half of the year, followed by an additional 100 basis points in the following year [1] - The article notes that significant revisions in non-farm payroll data in the past have been linked to statistical methods and low response rates in surveys, indicating potential for future revisions depending on the new statistical bureau director's reforms [1]