瑞银：机构“活水”仍在路上

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index and trading volume is primarily driven by liquidity rather than a significant influx of retail investors, challenging common perceptions about market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main buyers in the current market are identified as leveraged funds, quantitative funds, and some retail wealth migrating from fixed-income products [2]. - The financing balance in the market has reached a historical high, indicating a strong presence of "fast money" that is actively participating in the market, particularly in small-cap technology stocks [2]. - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 indicators has just begun to show signs of activation, suggesting that a larger scale of capital migration is still in the works [2]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - The equity risk premium (ERP) remains significantly above historical averages, indicating that the downward trend in risk-free rates has not yet been fully reflected in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [3]. - A-share valuations are considered attractive compared to both developed and emerging markets, with a projected profit growth of approximately 6% for the year [3]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - UBS anticipates a continuation of a "slow bull" market, with a preference for growth stocks as investor risk appetite increases [4]. - The balance of power between large-cap and small-cap stocks may shift, as the potential for further significant volume expansion diminishes [4]. - Institutional funds, particularly public funds and insurance capital, are expected to increase their presence in the A-share market, leading to a transition from a focus on small-cap growth to a more balanced approach [5]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Two core investment themes identified are artificial intelligence and the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to create substantial opportunities for leading companies in related sectors [6]. - The "anti-involution" theme is characterized by market-driven reforms aimed at addressing supply-demand mismatches and enhancing domestic demand, which could lead to profit recovery and value reassessment for key industry players [6].