黄金破位 3500 美元：货币政策与地缘风险交织下的贵金属狂潮

Group 1 - The core driver for gold reaching $3508.73 per ounce is the strong market expectation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 90% probability of rate cuts in September [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and policy fluctuations under the Trump administration have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, with significant price volatility observed due to unexpected tariff announcements [3] - Central banks globally are expected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold this year, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - Silver's price surge is driven by both industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, and financial speculation, with a 30% year-on-year increase in global solar installations [4] - The silver market has experienced a continuous supply shortage for five years, and the inclusion of silver in the "critical minerals list" by the Trump administration has enhanced its strategic resource status [4] - Speculative investments in silver have increased, with net long positions reaching 35%, the highest since 2011, indicating potential short-term correction risks [6] Group 3 - The sustainability of the current gold price level is under scrutiny, as previous attempts to maintain above $3500 per ounce have failed [5] - Long-term support factors for gold include rising geopolitical risks, diversification of reserves by emerging market central banks, and the onset of a Federal Reserve easing cycle [6] - The future trajectory of precious metals will depend on the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions, the evolution of Trump’s policies, and the global economy's ability to navigate high uncertainty [6]