政治危机叠加财政黑洞，英德法30年期国债收益率创多年新高

Core Viewpoint - The long-term government bond yields in major European economies are rising sharply, with the UK, Germany, and France reaching their highest levels since the financial crisis, driven by concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and policy uncertainty [1][4]. Group 1: Rising Bond Yields - The UK 30-year government bond yield has reached 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have risen to 3.41% and 4.51%, respectively, marking their highest levels since 2011 and 2009 [1]. - The increase in yields is attributed to significant fiscal spending by European countries in response to geopolitical security and economic recovery, alongside political turmoil in France and the UK, which has heightened concerns about policy coherence [4][6]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges and Political Uncertainty - The UK faces a £35 billion budget shortfall, with the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, struggling to alleviate investor concerns regarding fiscal prospects amid cabinet reshuffles [6]. - France's government is attempting to implement a $51 billion budget cut plan to curb deficits, but severe political divisions and uncertainty over trust votes complicate the situation, with last year's deficit reaching 5.8% of GDP [6]. - Germany's bonds, typically seen as safe assets, are also facing sell-offs due to increased defense and infrastructure spending, raising doubts about the sustainability of fiscal policies in the context of weak economic growth [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Central Bank Policies - Inflation pressures and uncertainties regarding central bank policies are significant factors contributing to rising yields [7]. - High inflation in the UK may limit the Bank of England's ability to cut interest rates further, reducing economic stimulus potential, while Eurozone inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to predictions of sustained high interest rates from the European Central Bank [8]. - Concerns over high debt levels and trade policies in both the US and Europe may introduce new inflationary pressures, further elevating global long-term interest rates [8].