传奇对冲基金：黄金该买多少，答案藏在这里！

Core Insights - The report from DE Shaw highlights the unique challenges of modeling gold as a non-productive store of value, emphasizing its lack of yield and industrial use, and the potential risk of it becoming worthless if society no longer assigns value to it [1][2] Group 1: Wealth Growth and Gold Valuation - The growth rate of global wealth is projected to outpace economic growth by 2.4 percentage points over the past 50 years, suggesting an annual growth of approximately 5% for wealth if global GDP grows at 3% [2] - Gold supply has historically increased by about 1.6% annually, but central bank purchases during geopolitical tensions could offset this supply growth [2] Group 2: Return Assumptions and Correlation - DE Shaw's return assumption for gold is set at 0.5% above the inflation-adjusted risk-free rate, with a volatility estimate of around 15%, consistent with historical averages [2] - The correlation of gold with stocks and bonds is low over the long term, which may enhance its utility in a portfolio primarily composed of these traditional assets [3] Group 3: Portfolio Allocation - The optimal allocation of gold in a portfolio is influenced by the correlation between stocks and bonds; if they are positively correlated, the ideal allocation is 9%, while a negative correlation suggests a 6.5% allocation [3] - Current correlations between stocks and bonds have been nearly zero over the past 12 months, complicating the assessment of gold's portfolio utility [3]