环比下跌近50%，国务院会议定调，未来楼市要止跌了？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a new round of policy easing for the real estate market is imminent due to poor market conditions and declining sales figures [1][3] - The State Council held its 9th plenary meeting on August 18, emphasizing the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous statements [3] - July data shows a significant decline in the real estate market, with national commercial housing sales area at 0.57 billion square meters and sales revenue at 0.53 trillion yuan, marking the lowest sales area since 2009 and the worst sales revenue since 2015 [3][4] Group 2 - Both buyers and developers are showing a lack of confidence, with real estate development investment decreasing by 12% year-on-year from January to July, the largest drop in 28 months [3][4] - The inventory of unsold properties is increasing, with the available area rising to 7.6 billion square meters by the end of July, contrary to the goal of reducing stock [4] - There is an expectation for policy measures in September and October aimed at inventory reduction, such as encouraging demand for improved housing and government purchases [5] Group 3 - The goal of the upcoming policies is to stabilize the market rather than stimulate it, with a clear message that real estate will no longer be used as a quick economic stimulus [5][6] - The recovery of the real estate market is expected to be slow, structural, and differentiated, dependent on the overall economic environment and public income expectations [5][6] - The potential for a temporary opening in the market exists with the introduction of new policies, but true recovery will rely on economic revival and restored consumer confidence [6]