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美国财长贝森特宣布,美联储理事提名人斯蒂芬·米兰极有可能在9月美联储会议前正式就职,这位米兰来头不小
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 16:27

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Stephen Milan, a close ally of Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its future monetary policy direction [1][3][10]. Group 1: Appointment Implications - Milan's background as a supporter of Trump's policies and his involvement in trade agreements suggests he may prioritize a more accommodative monetary policy [3][5]. - If Milan is confirmed before the September meeting, he could influence discussions on interest rates and asset balance sheet reduction towards a more dovish stance [5][10]. - The historical context shows that political pressure on the Fed can lead to adverse long-term economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current U.S. benchmark interest rate is above 5%, and inflation, while reduced from a peak of over 9%, remains around 3% [5][6]. - A significant reduction in interest rates could risk reigniting inflation, which may not align with Trump's electoral priorities [6][11]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $1.7 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, raising concerns about the implications of a more lenient monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The potential for Milan to push for quicker rate cuts could lead to a reevaluation of global market pricing, impacting the dollar's value and U.S. Treasury yields [10][11]. - The perception of the Fed as a tool of the White House could undermine confidence in U.S. debt as a safe-haven asset, leading to possible market sell-offs [13][15]. - The ongoing politicization of the Fed may erode its credibility and independence, which are crucial for maintaining market stability [13][15].