美联储独立性受挑战！金价创历史新高，周末市场恐会剧烈波动

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past the psychological barrier of $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3508.73, driven by multiple favorable factors and underlying market tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is high, with nearly a 90% probability for a September cut, supported by dovish signals from Fed officials [3]. - A weak US dollar has made gold more attractive globally, as it becomes cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus boosting demand [5]. - Rising geopolitical tensions and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to turn to gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, suggesting potential for further price increases, with key resistance levels at $3490-$3500 and support at $3460-$3450 [7]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs are optimistic, predicting gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025, attracting more investor interest [7]. - However, some analysts caution about potential short-term technical corrections, noting a divergence in trading volume that may indicate underlying risks [7]. Group 3: Upcoming Market Events - The gold market may experience significant volatility in the coming days, particularly with the upcoming court ruling on President Trump's dismissal of a Fed official, which is seen as a critical test of the Fed's independence [8]. - The release of the US non-farm payroll report could provide further evidence of labor market weakness, potentially reinforcing the case for a Fed rate cut and impacting gold prices [8].