NVDA Post-Earnings Outlook: Can AI's Biggest Winner Keep Soaring?

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is positioned for significant growth driven by the ramp-up of its Blackwell architecture and favorable AI capital expenditure trends, despite facing potential risks from macroeconomic factors and competition [1][3][5]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - The Blackwell architecture has shown a 17% sequential revenue increase in Q2, with management expecting demand to exceed the original quarterly shipment forecast of $3 billion [1]. - Nvidia could see an additional $2–5 billion in sales in H2 if trade negotiations with China progress positively [2]. - The broader AI capital expenditure cycle is favorable, with Alphabet planning to increase its 2025 capex from $75 billion to $85 billion, indicating strong demand for Nvidia's GPUs [3]. Group 2: Long-Term Outlook - Nvidia's long-term outlook remains strong, with a projected $3–4 trillion addressable market in infrastructure by the end of the decade, and an 85% market share in AI accelerators expected to hold through 2026 [5]. - The next-generation Vera-Rubin architecture is set for a 2026 launch, with anticipated annual growth of 50%, surpassing consensus forecasts [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Competition - Market sentiment may be pressured by macroeconomic concerns, with the VIX at a year-to-date low of 14.22, and warnings from Bank of America about unsustainable complacency regarding market volatility [4]. - Competition from AMD is intensifying, with AMD shares up 47% year-to-date compared to Nvidia's 33%, raising concerns about market share challenges [8]. - Nvidia's price action is closely linked to other semiconductor players, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rising 21% over the past three months, indicating a strong sector performance [9].