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倒车接人?A股猛踩刹车,大摩最新研判!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-02 19:42

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.36% and the ChiNext Index down over 2% [1][2] - The technology sector faced significant downturns, particularly in consumer electronics, communication equipment, computing hardware, and semiconductors [2] - Despite the overall market decline, gold and precious metals continued to rise, supported by historical highs in international gold prices [2] Trading Volume and Margin Financing - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with an expected total trading amount of approximately 2.9 trillion yuan for the day [4] - The margin financing balance in the A-share market has surpassed 2.297 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and reflecting a strong upward trend since June [4][5] Company Earnings - A total of 5,432 listed companies in the A-share market disclosed their semi-annual reports, showing a revenue of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, and a net profit of 3 trillion yuan, up 2.54% year-on-year [6][7] - Nearly 60% of companies reported revenue growth, and over 75% achieved profitability [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Current discussions in the market focus on three core issues: the movement of deposits, regulatory attitudes, and market narratives [11] - Despite economic challenges, market narratives are improving, with investors looking towards potential policy catalysts and sustainable measures to boost domestic demand [12] - Analysts suggest that the market is not overheating, as trading volumes and margin financing balances, while elevated, have not reached historical highs [13][14][15] - The consensus indicates that the recent market rally is driven by the influx of funds from deposits and declining bond yields, although this view is contested by some economists [16][17] - The A-share market is seen as being in a favorable environment with supportive policies and ample liquidity [18][19] - Global capital is flowing into the A-share market, with domestic savings accelerating towards capital markets, indicating a sustained source of incremental funds [20]