美国8月ISM制造业PMI连续六个月萎缩，新订单改善，价格指数再回落

Core Insights - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, primarily due to a decline in output, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [1] - However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the prices index reached its lowest level since February, suggesting a reduction in price volatility caused by tariffs [1] Manufacturing Index Summary - The ISM manufacturing index for August was 48.7, below the expected 49 and previous value of 48, indicating continued contraction as it remains below the neutral level of 50 [1] - The new orders index rose to 51.4, significantly above the expected 48 and previous 47.1, marking the largest monthly increase since early last year [3] - The output index fell to 47.8, dropping 3.6 points and indicating a return to contraction for the first time in three months [3] - The employment index slightly increased to 43.8 but remains one of the weakest levels since the pandemic, below the expected 45 and previous 43.4 [3] - The prices paid index was 63.7, lower than the expected 65 and previous 64.8, indicating a decrease in price pressures [3] Industry Performance - The ISM survey indicated that 10 industries experienced contraction, particularly in paper products, wood, plastics and rubber, and transportation equipment manufacturing, while 7 industries showed expansion [5] - The overall demand remains weak due to tariff uncertainties, with 69% of manufacturing GDP in contraction, although the proportion of industries in severe contraction has slightly decreased [6] Economic Context - Consumer spending in July grew at the fastest pace in four months, driven mainly by expenditures on big-ticket items like automobiles [7] - The Markit manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 53, slightly below the expected 53.3, indicating a robust performance in the manufacturing sector [8] - The chief economist at S&P Global noted that the manufacturing sector showed strong expansion over the summer, with increased hiring to meet new orders and backlogs, suggesting potential economic uplift in Q3 [9]